IPL 2025 scenarios: SRH eliminated DC still in hunt for top-two finish

IPL 2025

Sunrisers Hyderabad’s IPL 2025 playoffs hopes hung by a thread ahead of their penultimate home game. They put up a spirited bowling performance, but passage of rain thereafter ended all their chances of a top-four finish. Delhi Capitals, meanwhile, earned a crucial point, and are still in with more than a decent chance.

This result also puts LSG in a must-win territory with three games to go, for 14 points won’t be enough for qualification now, as was the case last year.

TeamMatchesWonLostTiedNRPointsNRR
RCB118300160.482
PBKS117301150.376
MI117400141.274
GT107300140.867
DC116401130.362
KKR115501110.249
LSG11560010-0.469
SRH (E)1137017-1.192
RR (E)1239006-0.718
CSK (E)1129004-1.117

What do the Delhi Capitals need to secure a playoffs berth?

Remaining fixtures: vs PBKS (Away), vs GT (Home), vs MI (Away)

Assuming there are no further washouts, Delhi Capitals can now finish on 13, 15, 17 or 19 points. 13 points, i.e. three defeats will knock them out, whereas a win in each of their remaining games will help them enter the playoffs. They have games remaining against MI, GT and PBKS, and therefore, if they finish on 19, they will stand a great chance of a top-two finish. In this case, they will certainly stay ahead of MI, and could be tied with PBKS. That too wouldn’t matter for a top-two finish if RCB drop two of their remaining three games and GT drop one more other than the DC game.

In case DC finish with 15 points, they would need the loser of Match 56 to stay at 14 for starters, and hope the winner runs away towards the top. To simplify things in this case, DC would ideally want MI to beat GT and PBKS, who are their next two opponents as well, to curb the competition and hope for KKR and LSG to drop at least one game each.

If they win two more (ie. get to 17), there could be a three-way tie between KKR, PBKS and DC (should at least two of RCB, GT and MI run towards the top with 18 or more), bringing it down to the net run-rate (NRR).

How crucial is the MI vs GT contest?

Remaining fixtures for GT: vs MI (Away), vs DC (Away), vs LSG (Home), vs CSK (Home)

For MI: vs GT (Home), vs PBKS (Away), vs DC (Home)

If GT win each of their next four games, they’ll be confirmed of a top-two finish, as only RCB can match them with 22 points in that case. If both finish on 20, ie MI win on Tuesday (and thereafter) and GT win their other three, either or both can still finish in top-two, depending on RCB’s remaining results.

18 points too, will be enough for MI for a playoffs spot, as a win against PBKS or DC (or both) will limit at least one of them to a maximum attainable tally of 17. 18 points would suffice for GT as well, even if their defeats come against DC and MI – their direct competitors in that case – and they win later against LSG and CSK. In this scenario, only three of RCB, PBKS, DC and MI can finish with equal or more points as them, as the latter three play each other later in the league phase.

16 points i.e one win each, will only be enough for either of these two teams only if several other results go their way. MI stand at a great advantage if it comes down to the NRR, their +1.274 being comfortably the highest among all teams.

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